Comments on: Forget the Economic Experts – Research Says You Are Just As Good

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 08 Feb 2006 05:04:58 +0000

I haven’t read the book either, but I did notice in the New Yorker review the notable absence of those involved in the “hard sciences” (I include biology in that grouping). Which makes sense – science is in fact very good at predicting results.

My suspicion (and according to Tetlock, pRobably a wrong suspicion ) is that in the case of the business/economic world, we have the process backwards. In science, you ask how something works, then why it works. For various political and personal reasons, in the business/economic world, you go in with a theory of why things work, then force the data to fit.

The difference, as Taleb and others have alluded to, is that you cannot fool the truth forever, as competition will eventually force the pretenders out. Of course, TV experts don’t suffer from this pRoblem specifically because they don’t make specific, well-defined predictions. Or rather, they fudge it with tons of qualifiers.

Socrates really nailed the point on the head – he was the wisest man because he knew that he knew nothing.

By: Rob

Rob — Tue, 07 Feb 2006 23:05:25 +0000

I think this would make a very interesting topic for your next book. You could look at what types of things experts are good at, and what they aren’t. It would help people decide when to listen to them. It would also help experts decide where to focus their time and education.

By: John Brothers

John Brothers — Tue, 07 Feb 2006 21:07:58 +0000

There’s no doubt that there is an excess of bad forecasting. The best way to fix it is to force them to put their money where their mouth is – public forecasting “betting pool” judged by independent judges who can review forecasts and score people.

Actually, that sounds like a great idea for a new Web service!

By: laurence haughton

laurence haughton — Tue, 07 Feb 2006 19:49:50 +0000

Pablo that’s a great review. Thanks.

Another note on what this means. Credentials (advanced degrees, prestige appointments, etc.) are a sucker’s bet when you are deciding who to believe.

Also write down the predictions of pundits and look them over later. You’ll be surprised (and mortified) by how often they say things that are so vague and impossible to measure that they are meaningless. Pundits depend on our attention deficits and short-term memories.

By: Pablo H.

Pablo H. — Tue, 07 Feb 2006 19:23:16 +0000

Yes - very good book. But I liked this review more: http://www.newyorker.com/critics/content/articles/051205crbo_books1