Comments on: Predicting Success and Failure – The Stories We Tell Ourselves

By: Irene

Irene — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 02:57:51 +0000

We normally don’t know what will happen on our journey to success and relying so much on a predicted future will not do us any good. It may even cause a problem because of expectations.

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 21:26:41 +0000

If you can still find success at a level much less than the highly improbable event threshold, then there is no reason not to proceed with cautious optimism.

If the only way it works is if you make the 1 in a million chance, then only the mathematically challenged and true pollyannas need continue.

By: Jefferson Otwell

Jefferson Otwell — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 20:20:16 +0000

I keep telling my clients that if they can predict the future, then they can make a bizillion dollars. Predicting anything, even things under one’s own control, is very difficult.

With that in mind, I very much admire your link to the decision tickler. It seems to me a most objective and honest way to explore one’s own decision making process and success rate.

By: laurence haughton

laurence haughton — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 13:34:19 +0000

I just finished “The Black Swan” and am reading it again. It’s a tough assignment unlike Taleb’s first book. But while “great” success follows a random path “small” success is under our control. Step one is don’t turn failure into a disaster! That path is never a random path.