China, not India, Will Be the Next Superpower


This BusinessWeek article claims that China and India are facing off to see who will become the next superpower.

The author claims that China won’t be the next new superpower because it has an authoritarian regime. India, despite its shoddy infrastructure, still hosts a chaotic democracy, so it should succeed. Here’s an excerpt:

Authoritarian regimes often yield impressive short-term economic results, as seen in Germany in the 1930s, the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Brazil in the 1960s, and China in the 1990s. Unencumbered by such things as property rights, legal recourse, and public debate, the
authoritarian regime can harness significant economic and political resources to create impressive industrial and economic feats.

Conversely, democratic regimes tend to be sloppy
affairs with loud public discourse, a vocal press, stubborn land owners, and a myriad of civil liberties. Far from being able to harness economic resources, the government often must act more as a regulator. The result is that there are very few grandiose government-sponsored projects. Instead, there are countless private-sector initiatives driven by the invisible hand of the market. While the authoritarian regime is envied by some, the fact is that longer term, this type of socioeconomic model has typically led to economic and social distortions.

The author goes on to cite threats such as inflation, lack of property rights, and lack of rule of law as major stunting factors for China’s eventual dominance.

It’s true that India has an active democracy. It’s also notoriously corrupt. (“Rule of law” is an exaggeration in some places.) Half the population doesn’t have access to clean water. You can’t mobilize a sick, starving population without the infrastructure to give them their basic needs. You can, however, argue about their rights in a parliament without actually building them a well.

China, on the other hand, has infrastructure. It’s a communist-capitalist society, whatever that means. As far as I know, more than half its population has enough to eat. China has been showing a few signs of opening up to increased public discourse, at least internationally (Olympics, anyone?).

If China’s trend towards openness continues, it will win hands-down. Infrastructure is key to building a middle class, which is key to being a stable superpower. India needs to get its act together and figure out a way to get more than 50% of its population into livable conditions.

I think the only thing standing in China’s way at this point is itself.
Inflation and a bad reputation are cheaper to fix than a major demographic problem. If innovation is an issue now, it shouldn’t be for long, with the millions of university graduates pouring out of Chinese tech institutes. A few tweaks to the economic model, and we’ll all be learning Mandarin in a few years.

Thoughts, anyone?

  • Indresh

    Who told you indians are sick and hungry? People don’t check data before writing.

  • Drea

    Indresh, Thanks for commenting. In this case, I used data I had memorized from a previous project, but what really informed me was first-hand experience after several months in India earlier this year. Many Indians are doing very well. To say that everyone is would be a gross exaggeration.

  • Raul

    Indresh: Perhaps a quick look at the latest UN human development indices may help, or a visit to India certainly will.

    You obviously are reluctant to practice what you preach. Can’t identify problem, can’t solve it.

    But that’s a problem with the small minority in India who are doing well, they would rather pose online and globally and get defensive at the slightest criticism than acknowledge what stares them in the face.

    Blind pride may make you feel better personally but it will not solve any problems for the 70% of Indians who don’t have access to basic services and eke out a living on Rs 20 a day or $.50.

  • AK

    Good ideas are important to the long-term success of any nation. India is corrupt, but China has bad ideas: communism doesn’t work.

    As such, in the long-run, India will prevail, but of course, if China has a revolution and embraces democracy and capitalism, all bets are off.

    It doesn’t really matter anyway: as long as the United States allows immigration, she will always remain #1.

  • Wade

    I thought that the BusinessWeek article was way off the mark. So much so that it becomes less a credible magazine to me after I read the article. I will probably take all information from BusinessWeek with a grain of salt in the future.

  • Listen to Amartya Sen: Freedom is more important than democracy. Neither China nor India are good at freedom, but India has a longer tradition of civil society. Can it overcome corruption faster than China can overcome fascism? There is no winner if both make progress, but there will be losers with failure to change.

    I tend to think that China will go faster because wealth is happening more quickly AND communist ideology supports the rights of the individual. Indians, OTOH, are both poor and stunted by the legacy of colonialism, the license Raj, caste, and an all-too-flexible attitude towards corruption.

    Oh — and India has a longer history of ill-fed underclasses…

  • If China doesn’t take care of their pollution people won’t even be able to live long enough to notice they are a power.

  • Peter Wang

    I am a Chinese and I don’t care whether China is a superpower or not, as long as it is strong enough to defend itself. If there is a superpower in the world and Indians want it so much, let India be it.

    China is fast changing. For higher education, in 1990, China graduate 250,000 engineering and natural science students, in 2008, that number is 2,500,000. The western media still cites old data for their research, what a pity.

    Anyway, I expect Chinese to make major and dominant contributions in global science and innovations starting from about 2020, for the wellfare of the whole mankind.

    Wait and cheer for the future better world!

  • Funny. Do people really believe in these kind of predictions? While people may like or dislike articles of these kind, depending on the country they belong to or the country they want to associate themselves with. My interest is to see, if both become Superpowers, how do they co-exist as neighbours either peacefully or quarrelling.

  • Senny

    Year 2010 belongs to UAE(Dubai & Abu Dhabi)

  • Tom

    Hard to say.

    The US and Britian hardly came to power status via modern democratic values. Neither adopted free market systems (do the current socialization of finacial risk via taxpayer bailout adhere to free market ideology?) or many of the other “values” 1st world cultural elitists deem neccesary for economic growth. Eventually it really comes down to providing basic needs to the majority of its citizens which will provide a foundation for growth.

  • MK

    Thats true. India can never be the superpower it wants to become. However, India can try to have good health care for all, vibrant business and a robust knowledge economy with some forerunner innovations and leadership in a few fields of science and technology minus the religious and caste high-sentiments. Thats all we should expect from India at this point. Perfect equality is NEVER possible or found in any country in the world. Poverty is found everywhere in the world, including America, where I live currently.

  • bsr

    wake up every body
    indian economy is making progress from about 8 to 9 years
    and it is 2 early 2 comment that whether india is going to be the next super power or china or any other country.but let me tell u one thing people are talking about discrimantion on the basis of caste in india.discrimination,poverty and corruption is every where,in USA as black and white and in china as han or tibetan or chinese muslims.BUT some nation give an extra bit of effort in hideing corruption and voilation of human rights by their country(ESPECIALY CHINA and US-instead of being a democratic country)).and poverty is growing in
    the world richest nation as far as the next superpower is concerned india has the potential to become a superpower like china and the other fast growing economies has.and who is going to be the next superpower?
    that time will tell.

  • Aman

    well said bro..

  • Paida


  • Ed

    India is the only country in the world histrory trying to make to the first world by being democratic while still being poor. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are using the same model: develope economy first, then the more democratic rights. Think about it.

    India is also the only country in the world history trying to jump into the most advanced knowledge economy directly from agricultural economy by skipping entire manufactoring economy stage. This is to suggest that farmers can somehow become scientists overnight. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are also using the same model: every single one of them was (is, in China’s case) “world factory ” once upon a time.

    And I don’t know what you guys are on by arguing that India even stand a chance in power game. The real question is how long will it be sobber enough to realize that it is a moving giant with feet made of clay.

  • snowman121

    of course China will win, China is already a superpower by many measures, but China does not want to dominate the world like the old Soviet or the current US. A peaceful superpower is great for the world. India can certainly be a superpower as well, but it seems india has a lot of baggage, being colonized in the past has damaged the national pride. Some people insist that the western model is the only model for human society to succeed, China has proven it wrong. BTW, Bubai might have some fancy buildings now, but it will not last, it is a mirage in the desert, that part of the world need to sort out a lot of issues before they can be on the road to world powers.

  • rohan

    its foolish of those who think that there is a race to become super power and if so then every one of us has to wait for long.see this whole debate on that who will b the ultimate winner is out n out baseless.instead we should encourage these two fastest developing economies in their endevours n should mark it as a beginning of the rise of third world .No one in this century can b stated as super power.US attack on afganistan and iraq but osama still free and palling for another 9/11.i think this word superpower is now becoming void.india is developing it will become economic super power in next decade.this means more opportunities and same is the case with china the difference is going to experince this 1st.but if u wan’t to percieve it as a race then plzz remember that tortoise n rabbit race now india is that tortoise and china …. u understnd,by tortoise don’t i don’t mean to say that india is lazy but the fact is that we believe in strong foundations so that in future v can face most adverse conditions .

  • Wong

    My two cents:

    Goldman’s (?) Chindia concept is brainless. China and India are very differnt countries with very differnt cultures and traints of people. I met and worked with some mainland Chinese and Indians from India in my previous study. I visited both countries several times. Mainland Chinese in general are industrious, focused, practical and very intelligent. They talk the talk and most importantly, walk the walk. While Indians are generelly smart , but big-mouthed, with big ambition but few actions. Indians seem to me a bit chaotic compared to mainland Chinese’ confucius sheer discipline and order.

    Democracy is definitely superior system in general than autocracy, IF, one surpasses a certain economic development tredshold. Unfortunately, I don’t see India’s democracy is a big plus in her current stage of economical development. Too too many iliterate ppl there with little improvement on basic education. So vote for what? Blinds vote for idiots?

    By the same token, India’s “demographic dividend” (another main “advantage”” over China named by Deusche Bank, etc.) is another brainless concept! Since more than half of new-born and young people in the future WILL be starving, illiterate and/or semi-illiterate, what is this `dividend` for? For sharing the limited social benefits while contributing nothing ? It should be called a huge demographic BURDEN!

    Without proper basic education system, India has chosen a Wrong developement path by skipping manufacturing industry to leap “forward” directly to Sevice and Knowledge-based industry. What do they think? Are the mass illiterates will suddenly become the beacon of wisdom base of future global economy?

    Without proper infrastructures, India has left far behind China in THE persuit for manufacturing industry – the starting ladder. The later she realises it, the harder for her, if it is impossible already, to catch up. This is because world energy/resoures are far from sufficient for sustaining another infratrucure of scale of China since now on.

    India vs.China? No contest! The game is over strategically, tactically and pratically, long before Morgan Stanley raised the topic.

    Does China also has problems? Yes! A HUGE one. China may or may not need Western democracy per se in the foreseeable future. But one thing China must need, the sooner the better: Rule of LAW ! Chinese don’t need good emporer/s, but a truly independent juridical system. If CCP can deal with that correctly and in time, China will be the superpower, regardless current f..ked up environment and water issues. With rule of law, instead of rule of CCP, China can catch up and surpass US in both quantity and quality in a matter of several decades.

  • Mohak Pandey

    none will be superpower
    Future world will b MULTIPOLAR WORLD
    every countries will have streangth n weakness

  • The good point for both these nations is that they are HUGE, and growing fast (China even faster than India) while European nations and US, like fools waste money on ill ventures like “War on Terror”.

    Advantages of India are:

    India is more open to the world than China. Indians generally (who are English educated), speak good English. In China, less percentage of the population speaks English. Its difficult to change the “English-speaking” trend on Earth, but it would be interesting to see a generation learning Mandarin ;).

    2. There is a bigger youth population (than China), who have a voice in a democracy. Though the democracy of India my be shoddy, once these youths are stirred there would, without doubt be faster growth in all fields. Like I said, the Indians are generally slack (I am an Indian mysef :D)

    Advantages of China are:

    1. They are a bigger economy, that is growing at a faster rate than India. China has also been less affected (than India) in the time following the “Global Economic Meltdown”.

    2. China has a more massive and technologically stronger army than India. I am not saying they would go to war, but a Superpower by all means NEEDS to have the strongest military. China on this line is not only technologically ahead India, but also by manpower.

    The only disadvantage to China is if the Communist party remains rigid and people demand rights to vote and express themselves. But I am quiet sure this won’t affect them, because it will be a gradual change the Communist party will also accept. Mainly because once you are rich, you understand socialist policies are less necessary.

  • Steve D

    Thanks to the 1 child policy of the 70s, 80s and early 90s, China will turn grey before it escapes poverty. It’s advantage will start dissipating away beginning in 2015. India, a democracy, will have a smooth transition.

  • kuta

    I do not understand something?

    When does the western media wants to grow out of false prejudice and pride.

    china and india are two ancient cultures where people have definitely more wisdonm amd potential of work than Europe or West so called America.

    America is just country with no civilization or any culture of its own.Some people leaves the Europe, find a new place and kill its inhabitants brutally and name that place as America. Anyone can do it. Go loot some starnge land, convert its already rich resources in to good infrastrcture at the expense of black labour so called slavory.

    Look at the countries like India which were vandalised by invaders and look the progress India has made. Who the hell say half Indians does not have drinkking water?.

    This is pure peice of West ignorance, mere chimerical ideas to keep west on top.

    Do you think America is true democracy. Absolute no. Its mere capitalism to cntrlo the assets created on others land.

    We alresdy know what kind of mind set Americans have for imigrants and people of color? they will do everything Indian and chinese and still discriminate them at their will.

    America runs on Imigrants. Where do they come from?
    India and china etc.

    Come on grow up westren media but I donot mind if certain poeple wants to be happy in ignorance.

  • Shunjing

    Pardon my poor English. Indian is willing to die to be call a Superpower chinese grammar say it like this. Die die want to besuperpower . India is a Superpower. India is a Superpower. India is a Superpower.

  • huyu

    I am Chinese and an under-deserved Anglophile as

    well. To us Chinese, India is already the world’s

    No.1 Superpower. No dispute here, and much admired.

    In PPP terms, India is already the world’s No.1

    economy, not even the US comes close. India has a

    super high-tech economy with InfoSys, Wipro, Nano,

    and much more that the average Chinese never even

    heard about. Not to mention Gandhi, Nehru, and Singh

    super human politicians. India has a huge population

    dividend, and as time grows the advantage will

    become much more pronounced. In the next 100 years,

    India with her super effective democracy will

    prevail; as we just pray that India will be also

    kind enough to leave a bit of room for us Chinese to

    earn a modest living on our planet. India just needs

    to sleep walk through the next 30 years, whereas us

    Chinese will have to continue to slave under the

    Sun, rain, and snow just to keep us fed and our kids

    in school. With the current economic crisis, my

    salary here in Beijing is shrinking by 8% each year,

    together with the overall economy. In 30 years, I

    suspect it would be zero, but then I would also be

    dead and need not to care. Whatever you hear from

    our government and the foreign press, if it is good

    news, just ignore it, it is not quite right, shall

    we just say. Cheers to India.

  • Random Commenter

    You say as quote : It’s true that India has an active democracy. It’s also notoriously corrupt. : which means that it is a capitalist nation

    and then you also say that China is a communist-capitalist nation. What makes you think China is not as corrupt if not further. One of the main chinese principles is to earn money and they will do that in anyway. Having lived myself in China, Singapore and Hong Kong I can say that for a fact. Besides more than three quarters of china’s population are uneducated and are living in poverty and starving. Don;t mistake that for india. Sure there is poverty prevalent in both countries but more so in China. Also Indians do have an averge higher number if educated people, whereas in China due to excessive overpopulation not so much. This is not their fault and i’m sure with more foreign investments in their country they will catch up in no time.

    Also China thrives on others investing in their country. If investers pulled out many people would not be able to feed themselves, e.g olympics provided money for every lay person who can perform good gymnastics.

    In addition, India is a country rich in natural resources with moderate climate conditions allowing enough food growth to support its population. Whereas the a lot of China is taken up by that massive Gobi Dessert, allowing impossible living conditions.

    Most importantly, India is a more self-sufficient country then China. Being left to itself India has risen drmamtically With the economy soaring at 8 percent a year and this is all due to India itself, no one else. But as I have mentioned before CHina gets a lot of its boost from foreign investment. However they are not to be underestimated.

    It can be fairly concluded that both India AND CHina will emerge as superpowers…however which one emerges first I believe is India hands down…But everyone is entitled to their own opinion and we should just let time take its course to show the actual result.

  • kkkk

    One thing I don’t get.

    The last superpower who lost its superpower status was UK, and the transition happened in the 1920s, 1920s folks, was long time ago, by then 80% of the human world was undeveloped, Germany merely made it to a country 20 yrs ago, what makes you think the United States, current world superpower would let this even happen again?!

    China, is a cheap labor based export-oriented economy, if vast majority of its people get rich, the economy dies. You can’t become richer than your boss right? simple as that, the Chinese live on selling goods to the americans, if the sellers in total are richer than the buyers, don’t you think demand of chinese goods would collapse as the price will be unbelievably high? economics 101 says china, if maintain its current growth pattern, cannot be richer than united states, not to mention to replace it as the next super power.

    I don’t know much about India, aside from the fact that it was a british colony, and once break free, try to leapfrog from an extremely poor 3rd world country to the first class passenger of the earth without solid industry growth, let me tell you about the essential reality of business, if you sell psuedo goods such as service, it won’t last long, eventually the bubble caught you, because you are not producing anything, look at the internet bubble in the early 2000s, and that the housing bubble which cost the notorious global recession.

    United States, in another hand, has been maintaining its super power status for almost a century now, there’s a reason for that, United States changes thru time, it had become the world factary in the 1920s thru 1950s, when industry is the best catalyst for domestic economy, then in the 1970s it successfully tranformed its economy to service-oriented, and moved all its pollution industry to the 3rd world, and take benefit from cheap labors from all over the 3rd world. China ofcoz is no exception, cheap slave workers of china have a boss, and that my friend is corporate america. I’m just saying, the United States made the most right bets for the past 90 yrs, and there’s no sign of its losing this brilliance.

    It takes the rich to make huge mistakes to become poor, but huge luck even a miracle for the extremely poor to become rich, think about that, we as avg. daily working people, want someday to slave our boss, how big of a chance do we stand?

  • Tao

    I do not know India will be next superpower, but I am pretty sure China is not. China GDP/per capita is only 4% of USA. If you can read Chinese, then you possibly know that current National Goal of China: “To be a middle-level developed Country by 2050” (i.e some country as current Argentina). That is the development Goal of Chinese goverment and circulated in Chinese media very often. Every 5-year on CCP convention, CCP will address how far away still and what should we do in order to realize the goal.

  • Huyu

    Let’s just cheer India to be the superpower from today. Better yet, as there can be only one super power in this world, let’s just hope India will also take the responsibility being one. For the rest of us in China, cheers to a better life.

  • I think India and china would be two superpower nations. But China is most developed now than India to become a superpower nation.

  • Inde nial

    Anybody for chappati and dhal? The cuisine of the superpower. India is already a superpower. Just close your eyes and walk around the rev Ganesh shrine 108 times , chanting ‘ india is a superpower ‘ and you can be sure India will be a superpower. Only don’t tell the Chinese.

  • Marx

    Oh, be quiet Huyu. Your mockery for India through your little satire is much un-called for.

    Let me digress; I must agree with kkkk and Tao- China itself doesn’t even have the desire to be a superpower. Such endeavour would almost be impossible as the world is already on a fixed scale slanted towards the benefit of America. But I hope that I only think so for a lack of perspective or that I’m looking at this from too narrow a spectrum.

    However, I must add that, despite hoping that China and India could actually take over as superpowers, I believe the western media had been using the “China becoming the super power” slogan as a scare tactic braodcasted to steepen their contempt for China- much like the “Red Terror” campaign in the fifties to ingrain fear in the minds of some submissive Americans enslaved by the television.

    Thanks to Michael Moore, and many other independent thinkers, I truly hope that maybe one day America would loosen and break free from the grip of its corporate sponsors and truly rise as a nation of democracy.

  • will

    hello, my friends
    most of the chineses are biddist and their god budha was born in india. if you look at the ancient history, most of the gods were born in india. india is holy land. it is a land of god. there is no doute that india is going to be next superpower. god wants to be india next super power than nobody can do anything. it is all about god, my friens………..keep in your mind. just watch the game of the god………….there is no comment and arguement about this topic.

  • Stan

    3 elements of a superpower
    —ablity to attack others at anytime
    —repay debts wit more debts
    —hv media made up of bullshit like CNN

    India and China? not in 100 years they wont :P

  • Fuhrer

    To become a super power you have to have defined borders. Few years from now India will evolute to become india1, india2, india3 etc with so many suppressed separatist movements.
    China stays one nation and is moving in one direction unlike Indians who are running like headless chickens everywhere with no clear destination (practically)
    Time be the judge

  • Mike Sevenoaks

    It is too naive to think China is a Communist state as we saw it in Stalin’s Soviet Union. What China has now is something very new and unique. Definitely its strange political system needs more academic study in order to define it. I personally think it is something totally new and may lead it a new model of democracy. What we know is tat it is certainly not black and white Communist or Capitalist, but we don’t know what it is. In terms of democracy, it very often refers to political system in whcih people can air different views and there is an opposition party actively playing its role. We tend to think that there is no opposing views be heard in China and there is no opposition party in operation. That’s totally wrong, China’s opposition party is Westen media which have been doing a great job to scrutine everything China does witout mercy and in effect help to push China toward a modern and prosperous country. My own study found that the influence of Western media’s critism on China’s prosperity is far more postive than we thought. Therefore Chinese model of democracy in the future can be something that is totally different from we have in the West. In the future, they may have a political system having a one party rules the nation and yet with a very strong second power scrtinising what the ruling party does- the press. We know in China at the moment they don’t have such a powerful press, but we the Western media is doing that job while the power of Chinese press is growing (we can see it is growing). And I do hope Chinese will one day establish an alternative and good model of democracy and realise it is important to let the press to enjoy full freedom.

  • jake

    china and india both have 1 bllion plus the super power status comes only when all the people have basic rights and a formidable future.
    if u want a global scare war.then there is no ‘who is the super power question?’
    britain,france,china,india,usa,pakistan even south africa have nuclear switch and all the super power status is gonna crumble down..
    we will have to wait and see who is the next super power.the country with the most guts will be the winner in the long run

  • Joker

    Of course India is a superpower. Can you see witht he Iran issue? The Germans,British,America,France,China, and Russia have to consult with India…oh wait India is not even at the table? Don’t forget that India is not even a Permanant Security Council member. If you have enough clout in the world India wouldn’t need to beg for a UNSC seat. TO be a superpower you have to be able to influence the world’s affairs. India is one of the “players” but in no way is India on par with the US or China in 2009. The West needs China to deal with Iran, North korea, Climate change and a whole host of other issue. The West expect India to follow the West lead but China and Russia can dictate their own terms.

  • nick

    china’s government is gonna crumble down when peope realise tha

  • newss

    Yes, India will be a Superpower …LOL

  • vijay

    Its’not about India or China, its also not about India and China. As long as there is disparity there will be problems. Its only about who reaches the cliff and scale down.

  • whybother

    the next superpower is ‘the state of israel’.Go figure.

  • whereWe

    China’s leadership is always very humble. I haven’t even seen or read such a thing that China wants to be a superpower from any official statement, talking and articles. The most frequently used words from China’s leadership is that we want peaceful rising. So if India wants to be a superpower, just go ahead. No one will stop you.

    I see that labling China as a superpower is just western media’s propaganda. They always portray and regard China’s developments and achievements as a threat to their “best” governing system – voting. We all know that this voting system helps nothing for the development of country’s economy and well being. If you check the western history you will see no western country hade become a wellfare society because of the democracy or I may say voting system. Take one example. At 60s, the US hade already been a world superpower. But at that time black people didn’t have the same rights as whites. That was why Dr King started human rights’ movement for black people.

    I believe that China’s leadership and Chinese people are in some kind of consensus that the development should highly priorited before all other things. To obtain this goal the stability of a society is a premise. No stability means no developement. Therefore anything which challenges it is not allowed. It is easy to understood that some internet sites are blocked in China because its contents are always disturbing such kind of stability China needs currently. Not completely free to accese some sites is not so bad in reality.

  • vaneet

    WhereWe, you have a very good point. I think that chinese system is an evolution to an old existing system in place. So far , it is working.

    Even though India thinks or try to be a major player in this world, it is not going to happen that easily for at least next 50-70 years.

    China on other hand have a plan, have a different system. China cannot be superpower for at least 50 – 70 years.

    Lets start with india, A nation with more than 1 billion people, hindus, buddhists, muslims, christians , sikhs and all here. A nation with corruption, class system, too religious, a nation with more dreams than action. Being democractic cannot resolve problems of its people. What shall we aim for ? a more foreign exchange in banks, more nuclear power, more companies, more aircrafts ? and what about humans ? when we we going to grow up ? it is 2010,
    enough of making economies richer at slavery of your neighbour. enough !!!< lets evolve and just scrap the complete system , if not , then stop teaching kids about equality of color, creed and caste …

    China – a nation with a great plan, a nation with great determination, a nation who does more action than it dreams.
    Again, at expense of its own people —

    Why we cannot create a new superpower in this world i.e. love of humans with environment. I am NOT environmentalist.

    Can we think of a economic model which can make people happy without supply and demand, do not tell me , u cannot because you have NOT made an effort as yet.

    You want this world to stay until 2099, then please understand one simple thing : current model of democracy and capitalism will finish the world sooner than we think.

    We do not need capitalism, socialism, communism. we need harmonlism / a system where we live in harmony to get peace with onself and neighbour. How we will feed ourselves? u must be thinking ? i am thinking too mate ?

    If you can put 25 engineers on table to create google , facebook, solar energy, spaceships, please please do not tell me., we cannot do that.

    Superpower – should be a collection of nations working together to create a better world so that animals, plants and humans can live together.

    china or india or USA or UK – no one is going to solve anything

    india is copying the west . i hate even the television in india, they speak in english……. thats amazing for me.

    i mean, what is that ? indians believe that western system is the best. it was a great system but not anymore because PEOPLE are NOT happy in their own countries / it have reached a limit.

    Super power – was , is and will be – Sun, Space and Earth. ( collection of bodies living in harmony )

    we cannot learn from it — i do not have to be einstein to write it. I am a failure in many things —

    hence, can we stand for better subject ?

    many thanks for reading so far

  • Madhukanta

    I am sick to see from 80s to 90s and until now that we Indians do evrything that the West think is right and support the West ideologically. And in return, what do te West give to us? Poverty and poverty only! And they keep investing in China, a country that does everything different from the West and make them so much richer than India. This needs to change in order for us India to become next superpower and to stop China to become one.

  • Anwar Mahmood

    Energy use is the factor tagged and gadged to the economy and super power military status.Based on energy use(oil, gas and power)China has 100 percent chances to be the next super power as soon as 2028.By 2028, China will have surpassed America in total overall energy use and also the size of the economy.

    It is not the political preferences I am talking. I am a gas engineer with publications in the annual international conferences of the very top places of America and the world.I only think in energy use and related driven military might.

    America beat Germany in WW2 only because it was the world’s only car culture. America’s oil refining and gas use and power consumption combined was 12 times stronger in energy use in WW2. Even Russia as super power used only one sixth oil refining compared to America.

    Forget about India.China has 6 to 1 and expanding by the day edge over India in energy use. China also produces 8-10 times more steel and alluminum than India.Besides, India does not have the propensity to produce or consume one sixth total energy compared to China without fast melting glaciers and rapidly drying rivers because of even much smaller increase in energy use.

    China started to produce more cars than America since 2009 and within 10-12 years will have more cars than US. China is the first country ever in history(even Germany in both WW’S and Russia as super power after WW2 ever became America competitive like China is).

    In 2010, China’s energy use has surpassed 50 percent mark of America’s.China’s oil refining is 10 mbpd compared to America’s 17-18 mbpd. China produces 4.3 mega watt power per year compared to America’s 5 billion mega watt per year.VChina is getting pipe line linked to Russia, Iran,Qatar and Turkmanistan(these four countries have almost 70 percent of the world’s gas reserves).

    By 2015, China will be the biggest producer/consumer of power and will use 65 percent of total energy(oil, gas and power).China will refine 14-15 mbpd of oil, produce 5.5 megawatt power and consume 65 percent overall energy compared to America. In 2020 China’s energy use is projected to be 80 percent compared to America.By 2028, China will be the biggest user of energy and will have the largest economy on planet earth.Russia, Iran and central Asia are the three energy related keys that are going to make China the biggest energy user and the strongest economy on planet earth.

    This really won’t say that one looses and the other will gain. America and Europe are will no longer be the white west as substantial percentage people in both America and Europe are beginning to be of Asian, Latin or African.There is no reason to get upset or go to war which really no longer matters about east or west.You have the whole world melting into broad humanity. It will be like one class student going to top for a change and a new change.

    Like the British Empire of 1900, America’s retirement(and not decline or fall)is rooted in the same three causes that brought past five superpowers decline like Romans, Ottomans and British go retired.The three causes of a nation’s retirement from sole super power status were allways as such:

    1. Over-spending and deficits
    2. Too many small wars
    3. Drift away to non-productive legal and health related economies from productive science and engineering.After software out-sourcing of less importance, America is now heavily beginning to out-source energy related engineering.No attack from outside, but fall of energy related companies like Fluor, Foster WHEELER, UOP, bechtel etc are of grave concerns.

    But, for all five super powers of history, it is 200 years cycle that involves 60-70 years rise to super power status, 60-70 years sharing super power status with couple others and final 50-60 years of sole super power reign of the world.


    Iran’s energy key could be the most important energy factor for future world. With 140 billion barrels of oil reserves and 1200 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves(the first in the world in hydrocarbons reserves)Iran has 13-15 percent of world’s oil and gas. With sanctions and weaker production technologies caused conservation and with 14 billion bpd oil produced in Saudi Arabia and 22 tcfy of gas produced in Russia, Iran will biggest energy reserve house by 2025 or sooner. Today Iran is second (after Saudi Arabia) in oil and second(after Russia)in gas.

    BY 2025 0R 2030 ,Iran could be first in both oil and gas.With one quarter of the world’s oil and gas by 2030, Iran’s energy reserves could make China super and then sole super power sooner than the world can think about it.

    China is awake now and do not forget what Napolean said 200 years ago as such:

    When China awakes, it will shake the world.

  • Ganesh

    I am Indian… I love Chinese people and china government…

    I stayed in china for 3 months on work. I had very good experience there with my Chinese colleagues, they are very good people they take care of me very much they respects Indians very well. We are Asians we need to be together as Europeans and we need to help each other to improve our standard of living. Every people on earth should enjoy their life without harming each other.

    Indian government people are very bad. If our government people don’t change their attitude we never grow. Indians are very selfish and list bother of public wealth, they always think of their own house. Infrastructure is more important to achieve any thing but India lack in this. Indians need to give impotents to time. Indian systems are very good because of our old leaders and some good people around us, we need to thank for them, and we are have good life in the worst government because of them. If we follow the rules properly and love each other, help each other and think about each other our life will be better. Chinese government is working better than Indian government.

    We don’t want to think about superpower first we will think about our standard of living.

    India needs to educate all over people. India need proper leader who can control on corruption. In India we have money with every one not in government so only we cant do any improve our infrastructure, so please all Indians should be trust worthy to the government.

    We are not cheating our government we are cheating our self.

    I Love India, I want India to be role model to rest of the country. All Indians should work to achieve this…………………………..

  • Vamsy

    I think being super power is not only about the economy and military..It is about being responsible and respectful to the world. I don’t think there will be a new super power in the near future. We (India and China) have enough space to grow and prosper.So chill guys…

  • jay

    India was center of world trade and wealth for 1000s of years.Indians forest was full of lions and Indian land was blessed with lion like kings who displayed immense ruling power. no where on earth you could see 50 palace on one state.Indians do not believe equality like communist or Americans .In If you are high caste Hindu or high cast Muslim or high caste christian if you display ruling power you can rule India.India in general never accepted brutal invasion of Islam. India was not happy when Europe invaded it made the Indian kings dance for European tune of corruption sex and alcohol.

  • India has missed the energy boat alltogether.China is producing ten times more steel, seven times more alluminum, seven times more power and many times more oil and gas compared to India.

    India could not get more than 300000 bpd oil from Saudi despite best advocacy by America for India.The oil peak has reached and there simply won’t be more lavish spare oil. Gas is the expanding energy sector and India cannot get along Pakistan for pipeline routes.

    Even if you give fraction– one fifth energy use to India compared to China, the Indian glaciers are melting fast and rivers drying even more rapidly.

    China’s energy use and economy is surpassing that of even America by 2028-2030.India can dream of becoming a super power instead of China with its energy use of under 5 mbpd compared to America’s or China’s 35-40 mbpd equivalent by 2027.

    And do not forget that even with constrained and constricted energy use expansion, India is fas turning into barren, dry and non agriculturist land. And fast melting rivers will dry India up to sing as such:

    ‘Hum oos desh ke basi hein, jis desh ki ganga sook gai hei.”

    I do not hate or dislike India, but looking through the key gadget of energy use future to determine the grandness status, India’s case will be dismal.

    And America and the west on its last leg of 175 years of super-sole super power status, self propelled decline like similar cycles of the Brits,Ottomans, Romans and the Persians in past, America won’t be able to help India’s own incapacitation to interpose with China even shyly, let us all salute China as the coming super and sole power for all the world.

  • neil

    well i don’t see india or any other country is gonna be superpower.they even don’t know the term “superpower”.
    how’s that possible,then?
    USA is good.They just need to control their ego on what they do.because other people don’t like it.
    otherwise,they are good at everything.sometimes,they suck as well but they are better than any other,i bet.

  • neil

    usa has control on 3/4 of world
    china has control on 1/4 of world
    india doesnt even have perfect control on their own states

  • julian

    to me global super power means not only economic and military superiority but with super actions toward world peace and prosperity.Unless the world is free from excessive poverty to its people the term super power is useless.we need a leader with respect to rights of humanity and not only its image of power and strenghtin all aspect but accomodating toward the emerging problems that lead to division and disunity of world community.

  • neil

    good luck

  • vijay

    I am an indian, I honestly dont think India has a chance to become a superpower in near future. Many indians also think that China is on its rise to superpower.Many polticians, media some city based people are just hyping india would be superpower ignorant of groundfacts to gain publicity

  • Andrew

    As far as being a superpower goes: It sucks! We as a superpower have to take care of too many countries that need help in various areas. such as China and India. How do You think they got where there at. Us! America! One of the greatest Communist countries in the world failed because that type of government does not give power to the people. Every type of power has shown one thing. If the people are not happy the power is weakened then gone! IF America fails and falls so will the rest of the world and from that chaos the new superpower will arise and not till America is no longer. The true reason we are the superpower is because we are able to and do help others. Secondly, America is always mimicked. Even by china and India! Funny how china has to make its people think they live in a capitalist and somewhat democratic world by allowing a false pretense of Americanism. Just listen to the youth in china. Many think that the communist party just leaves them alone because they are not the same power they were before. China also has to ignore 80 to 90 percent of their population to show a false growth. The future will reveal this.

  • Andrew

    Anwar Mahmood

    Let us not forget that china has never been able to hold onto power. And do you really think that we, America, are sitting on large areas of oil and natural gas as the rest of the world uses theirs up for nothing. China will fail in ten years. Superpower is being smart. Russia took us on and failed. Even now Russia can defeat China. And, believe this! When China gets stupid Russia is with America because they trust us more then China.

  • You need to take care of your own citizens first. Then, you can move on to dream of bigger things like being a superpower. Correct?

  • RD

    india will bacome superpower before china because it has many plus points such as fastly developing infrastucture,tourism,fast growing sharemarket

  • Engineer

    Superpowers are made by leaders. I don’t know about China, but after working with Indians for many years, leaders they are not. I call them “copy/paste”, and they are not even good at that.

  • joshy

    As of today,there is no super power existing in this world.USA is packed with lazy obese McD loving citizens where as in India and China there are much active,smart working class who wants changes for betterment of their lives.Having said that,both countries have shown in the past that they want peaceful rise in the world scenario getting respect of more countries.In the contrary,US and specially west are turning more and more jealous,racist and saddist.No country can be superpower if it dont have an ideology,culture of its own which neither US nor Europe can be proud of since origin of mankind.Civilizations and peaceful culture existed in China and India from times immemorial..Slowly but steadily these countries will become smarter powers co-existing peacefully in another 40-50 years.Thumbs up to both the countries.

  • lim

    while usa are involved in messing with other countries political affairs resulting in the killing of many civilians, china is slowly buying them over by investing in their country, china is investing in africa, asia and they are the largest buyer of us treasury bonds meaning us is under the control of china, while usa is creating enemy china is making friends with many countries, its only a matter of time that the us will be at the mercy of china.

  • Human

    I am staying in china ( beijing ). I think people are working very hard and they are very unhappy. they are not even bothered about world politics. They are just copying west. everybody is allowed only one child and the children hence will face severe psychological problems like loneliness in future. China will be a failure for sure.

    India has no plans for being a super power. corrupt leaders have eaten up india. Its sheer luck that india is somehow growing in IT. but because of its very stable social system peoplee are happier. No comments for india.

    USA must collapse as all political situations are temporary.

    Who becomes the power cant happen smoothly in the passage of time as is going now. it needs some great change like big natural disaster on some part or a big war otherwise nothing much gonna change.

    It looks the war is a must. Because most of these countries are producing neuclear weapons and obviously they are not producing to keep them in treasure house and wear them as necklaces.

  • Chih

    I am a poor, simple Chinaman. I agree with huyu above. India and US are great superpowers. Chinese people just want 2 meals a day and a place to sleep at night. Thank you.

  • timujin

    then make china and india one country..both father of asian civilization..hehe much better

  • Nickle

    what would you say if china be the next superpower, would you move to china? or do you like china culture.
    i just howl out this topic, would you like to join and have a serious discussion.

  • kaushik

    well mates…i think the question of superpower is just a waste of time and mostly a joke…with so much of mining and usage of abundant natural resources from everywhere in this beautiful there any chance that the up coming superpower will have a scope to show its power??? nah…lets first think about our survival and then about our pride,save nature,save environment,be friendly,technology is never gonna take over nature,u cant stop a tsunami when it comes,maybe u can know its coming with ur technology but u cant stop it right?? so first strive to make a better planet for the future generation to live in,it is already in devastating state pls dont spoil it anymore with ur eagerness of achieving power(i understand that u love ur country soo much ..becoz i too love my country and in future u want to say that yeah im from india with a hint of pride,which we even do now anyway)

  • Arnold

    As a matter of fact, the fate of India was determined in 1200AD, when the process of slavery of Indians began under Turkish/Pathan/Mughal/Central Asian nomadic rulers of India and later the European rulers of Indian subcontinent. Today, India is merely a colonized residue in terms of society, educational model, national character and socio-cultural vision. Feudalism is a part and grain of Indian civilization, it is every where in India. First, the question is whether India will survive as a whole nation in future due to feudal system in society and discrimination? Answer is NO. India was created by mighty British rulers in 1947, India was never existed and will not exist in future as a nation. There is no question of super-power tag for India, just inconceivable and totally impossible.

    The question is simple and evident:

    If a territory (today called India) was colonized and ruled by multiple foreign rulers for prolong time in history, then there is something wrong at the foundation of this civilization. Hence, according to historical evidences, India cannot take a path of global leader.

    It may happen in future that, Indians may have a few dollars more in future and they will be capable to purchase TV/AC/Fridge/Cars in future. So, the quality of life of common Indians may improve a bit more in future.

    However, the people of India will be more colonized (read Americanized and Chinaised) in future and will need to have an indirect rule to keep India intact.

    Due to colonization of India, today Indians do not have any personality. So, they will remain a follower and a slavish country, although common Indians would become wealthy.

    China is on the way to become superpower in sure term, only and only if, Chinese government (CCP) hand-down democratic process slowly to common Chinese people in future. China is not a colonized country and so, not an inferior country historically. China needs to do political reform to become a superpower.

  • Saikat

    Thanks Arnold. Your vision of India is perfect. There is nothing Indian as such. In the long India is bound to disintegrate. It was a part of Brit empire. After English left it was taken over by the agents of the Brit. These agents belong to a few races of this territorry. They can be superpower but only after wiping out others like Red Indians.
    Sorry Arnold. I am not so much confident of Western Democratic capitalism. Today W.Europe, Japan and USA has stagnated. Unemployment and poverty will soon become part and parcell of Western life. Chinese capitalism will face the same fate but only after 40-50 years. But then Chinese economy will surpass total economy of Today’s First World. China can be No.1 economy but the capitalim will be dead by then. It will be a different world with different perception of super power.

  • Anymous

    Its funny how you people actually consider India to be the next superpower. More than millions there don’t even have their own toilet! It’s government is also corrupt as hell.

    China on the other hand, its numbers of poverty has been reduced largely, and its now the second-richest country in the world. Its capatalist, not communist, and the one child policy is no longer in full effect. Just shut up and accept it you people, and I’m damned sure that some of you are troll commentators.

  • Bindra

    @ Wong: “Mainland Chinese in general are industrious, focused, practical and very intelligent. They talk the talk and most importantly, walk the walk. While Indians are generelly smart , but big-mouthed, with big ambition but few actions. Indians seem to me a bit chaotic compared to mainland Chinese’ confucius sheer discipline and order.”

    I think you’ve watched too many Hollywood movies, Wong. You shouldn’t really mistake silence for intelligence. While Indian’s may be chatty, it tends to demonstrate their openness; they hang their foibles for all to see. It is simply a case with the Chinese that you don’t know how much corruption is going on, not that it is absent. Take university papers published, for instance. It was well known that many of the top universities from China were involved in a very large-scale plaigerism effort from Western institutions. This was uncovered not internally from Chinese sources; a Western auditor had to prove it. Another example is the so-called Chinese housing boom – which has turned into a near catastrophe as cities with no occupants become increasingly common (think of the ill-planned eco-villages). This is a typical example of something that appears industrious from the outside, but that is actually incredibly wasteful and corrupt from the inside. Yet very few know about it. On top of which they have an enormous demographic problem, thanks to the one-child policy and preference for boys. At the same time, the sheer ineptness of the government response to the problems of hyper-inflation, urban domestic planning and foreign relations (think the recent bouts with Japan over the trawler incident and renminbi revaluations) demonstrates a fundamental problem with having all the decisions (for an enormous country with diverse areas) made by a select group of people; they can make incredibly quick decisions and have them implemented at lightning speed. But when they get em wrong, there’s really no check on power and the situation becomes disastrous. You can also have what would otherwise be a small problem ballooning into a catastrophe. As for India, does it have the potential to be a superpower? Sure, if the government can keep their filthy mitts off the private sector and expand educational opportunities for the poor. I’m mixed on the issue of heavy infrastructure build because they need to be very careful they don’t repeat the mistakes nearly all East Asian economies (with an export driven model) have made. But clearly any would be an improvement over what they now have.

  • Bindra

    @ Arnold: “As a matter of fact, the fate of India was determined in 1200AD, when the process of slavery of Indians began under Turkish/Pathan/Mughal/Central Asian nomadic rulers of India and later the European rulers of Indian subcontinent. Today, India is merely a colonized residue in terms of society, educational model, national character and socio-cultural vision. Feudalism is a part and grain of Indian civilization, it is every where in India. First, the question is whether India will survive as a whole nation in future due to feudal system in society and discrimination? Answer is NO. India was created by mighty British rulers in 1947, India was never existed and will not exist in future as a nation”

    LOL, you have a very patchy understanding of Indian history there, friendo. Coz I want to keep it short, I’ll just point these out:

    1)Because of it’s geographic location, India had much more contact with outside cultures directly. This included people who tried to overtake. Hence the invasion of the Greeks (which was ultimately doomed to failure), attempts by the Arabs (unsuccessful but spread Islam), Mongols (re: point 2) and the British (in collaboration with the Mughal dynasty).

    2)The Mongols, if you’ll recall, actually conquered China, not India (though they made several serious attempts 1241-1260). It wasn’t till Tamerlane (non-Mongolian but he claimed it) sacked the Delhi sultanate (which was in a state of dissolution and offered weak resistance) in 1398 was there any Mughal state established.

    3)I think the reason you associate “chaos” with the idea of Indian statehood is because you think the diversity of languages and local customs/cultures means the state is in a form of disunity. That makes sense from a Chinese perspective given the fact the Han majority were so good at wiping out the rest of the populace (or any of their contenders). However India even during the Maurya Empire (that’s 320 to 185 BC,) was very much a diverse entity, contending many languages and dialects. And that covered pretty much the entire sub-continent. This idea of Indian dis-unity seems to be a great media-piece used by the PRC machine – but it simply isn’t true.

    There are many other points but I don’t want this to become an essay. In the end, I think this comes down to a fundamentally different way the two nations characterize things. For India, for better or worse it will attempt to embrace it’s diversity. It’s been the characteristic for it’s entire history, and it has an incredibly long history of civilization. For the Chinese, differences mean disunity/disharmony. Hence the majority crush the minority (or at least take a very negative view of this difference). Both countries have enormous problems, and I don’t think ANYONE will challenge the US in terms of superpower dominance for some time to come.

  • Saikat

    Bindra, it does not matter how many times a particular area has been conquered. What matters is that whether inhabitants of these areas form a single nation or not. Subcontinent has given birth to a lot of nations. Each has their own history just like Scandenavia, Balkan, Arabian world. No nation of Indian has taken birth. For example, Rajput legacy is a legacy of Hindi heartland. In Bengal Buddhist Palas is the real admiration. Turk attack is a disaster in Hindi heartland but it is celebrated in Bengal bcos it brought to an end of 30 years of Brahmanical Sena rules. Islam is a weapon against caste system to Bengalees who were Buddhists before the arrival of the Senas. Admittance of separate nationood does not imply admittance of enmity. Even during the Muslim rule Bengal remained independent under the Bengal Sultans upto 1575 A.D. It is simply a matter of identity. Similarly about other nations. I have presented here the history of two biggest nations of the subcontinent.
    The Mongol conquerors had been completely Chinaised just within three generations. Kublai Khan called himself the Chinese Emperor and not Mongol Emperor.

  • vidyut18

    I do’nt care which country becomes no.1 in terms of figures but i will be happier if the people can get benefit due to this race and can prosper and enrich their lives and living standard.
    It dose’nt matter who gets there or for how much it remains there but it will matter more if their respective governments keeps on trying hard to get upto that position and try to remain there and in this process creating a competitive and a beautiful atmosphere where every citizen can get a chance to live a happy, prosperous, beautiful, peaceful and meaningful life as this will ensure constant employment oppurtunities
    That will make world a better place to live in as its not figures which makes a nation but citizens.
    The last thing that I would like to add is to add enviroment and its conservation should also be a parameter for any nation to become a superpower as it is the need of time.
    This will create new avenues for existing and new superpower nations to work on and in turn create new employment oppurtunities and will also improve world enviroment and atmosphere by forcing the governments to work on this aspect also from which all of these govenments are running away till now.
    Please think about it….also.

  • Dilraj

    Sry to say dis to usa bt ur nation was discovered jst bcoz of d search of western countries of a sea route to india. . . .its utterly wrong on ur part to criticize india &its plans to b a superpower. . The reason behind flourishing of d western economy was mostly due to drainage of valueable materials frm india to . . . .west
    moreover . . U speak abt chinas humbleness towards india . . . It may b due to india is a holy land and d land of their god.the knowledge books of d world(vedas) belongs to india . .so u stand no chance to criticize india. . . . . .

  • Dilraj

    Sry to say dis to usa bt ur nation was discovered jst bcoz of d search of western countries of a sea route to india. . . .its utterly wrong on ur part to criticize india &its plans to b a superpower. . The reason behind flourishing of d western economy was mostly due to drainage of valueable materials frm india to . . . .west
    moreover . . U speak abt chinas humbleness towards india . . . It may b due to india is a holy land and d land of their god.the knowledge books of d world(vedas) belongs to india . .so u stand no chance to criticize india. . . .

  • Saikat

    Vedas are so bogus that sub-continent people has become a place run by foreigners in most of the known history.