This BusinessWeek article claims that China and India are facing off to see who will become the next superpower.
The author claims that China won’t be the next new superpower because it has an authoritarian regime. India, despite its shoddy infrastructure, still hosts a chaotic democracy, so it should succeed. Here’s an excerpt:
Authoritarian regimes often yield impressive short-term economic results, as seen in Germany in the 1930s, the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Brazil in the 1960s, and China in the 1990s. Unencumbered by such things as property rights, legal recourse, and public debate, the
authoritarian regime can harness significant economic and political resources to create impressive industrial and economic feats.
Conversely, democratic regimes tend to be sloppy affairs with loud public discourse, a vocal press, stubborn land owners, and a myriad of civil liberties. Far from being able to harness economic resources, the government often must act more as a regulator. The result is that there are very few grandiose government-sponsored projects. Instead, there are countless private-sector initiatives driven by the invisible hand of the market. While the authoritarian regime is envied by some, the fact is that longer term, this type of socioeconomic model has typically led to economic and social distortions.
The author goes on to cite threats such as inflation, lack of property rights, and lack of rule of law as major stunting factors for China’s eventual dominance.
It’s true that India has an active democracy. It’s also notoriously corrupt. (”Rule of law” is an exaggeration in some places.) Half the population doesn’t have access to clean water. You can’t mobilize a sick, starving population without the infrastructure to give them their basic needs. You can, however, argue about their rights in a parliament without actually building them a well.
China, on the other hand, has infrastructure. It’s a communist-capitalist society, whatever that means. As far as I know, more than half its population has enough to eat. China has been showing a few signs of opening up to increased public discourse, at least internationally (Olympics, anyone?).
If China’s trend towards openness continues, it will win hands-down. Infrastructure is key to building a middle class, which is key to being a stable superpower. India needs to get its act together and figure out a way to get more than 50% of its population into livable conditions.
I think the only thing standing in China’s way at this point is itself. Inflation and a bad reputation are cheaper to fix than a major demographic problem. If innovation is an issue now, it shouldn’t be for long, with the millions of university graduates pouring out of Chinese tech institutes. A few tweaks to the economic model, and we’ll all be learning Mandarin in a few years.
Thoughts, anyone?
Check it out: A funny comic explaining the 2007-2008 Mortgage crisis.
Who told you indians are sick and hungry? People don’t check data before writing.
Indresh, Thanks for commenting. In this case, I used data I had memorized from a previous project, but what really informed me was first-hand experience after several months in India earlier this year. Many Indians are doing very well. To say that everyone is would be a gross exaggeration.
Indresh: Perhaps a quick look at the latest UN human development indices may help, or a visit to India certainly will.
You obviously are reluctant to practice what you preach. Can’t identify problem, can’t solve it.
But that’s a problem with the small minority in India who are doing well, they would rather pose online and globally and get defensive at the slightest criticism than acknowledge what stares them in the face.
Blind pride may make you feel better personally but it will not solve any problems for the 70% of Indians who don’t have access to basic services and eke out a living on Rs 20 a day or $.50.
Good ideas are important to the long-term success of any nation. India is corrupt, but China has bad ideas: communism doesn’t work.
As such, in the long-run, India will prevail, but of course, if China has a revolution and embraces democracy and capitalism, all bets are off.
It doesn’t really matter anyway: as long as the United States allows immigration, she will always remain #1.
I thought that the BusinessWeek article was way off the mark. So much so that it becomes less a credible magazine to me after I read the article. I will probably take all information from BusinessWeek with a grain of salt in the future.
Listen to Amartya Sen: Freedom is more important than democracy. Neither China nor India are good at freedom, but India has a longer tradition of civil society. Can it overcome corruption faster than China can overcome fascism? There is no winner if both make progress, but there will be losers with failure to change.
I tend to think that China will go faster because wealth is happening more quickly AND communist ideology supports the rights of the individual. Indians, OTOH, are both poor and stunted by the legacy of colonialism, the license Raj, caste, and an all-too-flexible attitude towards corruption.
Oh — and India has a longer history of ill-fed underclasses…
If China doesn’t take care of their pollution people won’t even be able to live long enough to notice they are a power.
I am a Chinese and I don’t care whether China is a superpower or not, as long as it is strong enough to defend itself. If there is a superpower in the world and Indians want it so much, let India be it.
China is fast changing. For higher education, in 1990, China graduate 250,000 engineering and natural science students, in 2008, that number is 2,500,000. The western media still cites old data for their research, what a pity.
Anyway, I expect Chinese to make major and dominant contributions in global science and innovations starting from about 2020, for the wellfare of the whole mankind.
Wait and cheer for the future better world!
Funny. Do people really believe in these kind of predictions? While people may like or dislike articles of these kind, depending on the country they belong to or the country they want to associate themselves with. My interest is to see, if both become Superpowers, how do they co-exist as neighbours either peacefully or quarrelling.
Year 2010 belongs to UAE(Dubai & Abu Dhabi)
Hard to say.
The US and Britian hardly came to power status via modern democratic values. Neither adopted free market systems (do the current socialization of finacial risk via taxpayer bailout adhere to free market ideology?) or many of the other “values” 1st world cultural elitists deem neccesary for economic growth. Eventually it really comes down to providing basic needs to the majority of its citizens which will provide a foundation for growth.
Thats true. India can never be the superpower it wants to become. However, India can try to have good health care for all, vibrant business and a robust knowledge economy with some forerunner innovations and leadership in a few fields of science and technology minus the religious and caste high-sentiments. Thats all we should expect from India at this point. Perfect equality is NEVER possible or found in any country in the world. Poverty is found everywhere in the world, including America, where I live currently.
wake up every body
indian economy is making progress from about 8 to 9 years
and it is 2 early 2 comment that whether india is going to be the next super power or china or any other country.but let me tell u one thing people are talking about discrimantion on the basis of caste in india.discrimination,poverty and corruption is every where,in USA as black and white and in china as han or tibetan or chinese muslims.BUT some nation give an extra bit of effort in hideing corruption and voilation of human rights by their country(ESPECIALY CHINA and US-instead of being a democratic country)).and poverty is growing in
the world richest nation US.so as far as the next superpower is concerned india has the potential to become a superpower like china and the other fast growing economies has.and who is going to be the next superpower?
that time will tell.
bsr.
^^^^^
well said bro..
Japan.
India is the only country in the world histrory trying to make to the first world by being democratic while still being poor. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are using the same model: develope economy first, then the more democratic rights. Think about it.
India is also the only country in the world history trying to jump into the most advanced knowledge economy directly from agricultural economy by skipping entire manufactoring economy stage. This is to suggest that farmers can somehow become scientists overnight. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are also using the same model: every single one of them was (is, in China’s case) “world factory ” once upon a time.
And I don’t know what you guys are on by arguing that India even stand a chance in power game. The real question is how long will it be sobber enough to realize that it is a moving giant with feet made of clay.
of course China will win, China is already a superpower by many measures, but China does not want to dominate the world like the old Soviet or the current US. A peaceful superpower is great for the world. India can certainly be a superpower as well, but it seems india has a lot of baggage, being colonized in the past has damaged the national pride. Some people insist that the western model is the only model for human society to succeed, China has proven it wrong. BTW, Bubai might have some fancy buildings now, but it will not last, it is a mirage in the desert, that part of the world need to sort out a lot of issues before they can be on the road to world powers.
its foolish of those who think that there is a race to become super power and if so then every one of us has to wait for long.see this whole debate on that who will b the ultimate winner is out n out baseless.instead we should encourage these two fastest developing economies in their endevours n should mark it as a beginning of the rise of third world .No one in this century can b stated as super power.US attack on afganistan and iraq but osama still free and palling for another 9/11.i think this word superpower is now becoming void.india is developing it will become economic super power in next decade.this means more opportunities and same is the case with china the difference is going to experince this 1st.but if u wan’t to percieve it as a race then plzz remember that tortoise n rabbit race now india is that tortoise and china …. u understnd,by tortoise don’t i don’t mean to say that india is lazy but the fact is that we believe in strong foundations so that in future v can face most adverse conditions .
My two cents:
Goldman’s (?) Chindia concept is brainless. China and India are very differnt countries with very differnt cultures and traints of people. I met and worked with some mainland Chinese and Indians from India in my previous study. I visited both countries several times. Mainland Chinese in general are industrious, focused, practical and very intelligent. They talk the talk and most importantly, walk the walk. While Indians are generelly smart , but big-mouthed, with big ambition but few actions. Indians seem to me a bit chaotic compared to mainland Chinese’ confucius sheer discipline and order.
Democracy is definitely superior system in general than autocracy, IF, one surpasses a certain economic development tredshold. Unfortunately, I don’t see India’s democracy is a big plus in her current stage of economical development. Too too many iliterate ppl there with little improvement on basic education. So vote for what? Blinds vote for idiots?
By the same token, India’s “demographic dividend” (another main “advantage”" over China named by Deusche Bank, etc.) is another brainless concept! Since more than half of new-born and young people in the future WILL be starving, illiterate and/or semi-illiterate, what is this `dividend` for? For sharing the limited social benefits while contributing nothing ? It should be called a huge demographic BURDEN!
Without proper basic education system, India has chosen a Wrong developement path by skipping manufacturing industry to leap “forward” directly to Sevice and Knowledge-based industry. What do they think? Are the mass illiterates will suddenly become the beacon of wisdom base of future global economy?
Without proper infrastructures, India has left far behind China in THE persuit for manufacturing industry - the starting ladder. The later she realises it, the harder for her, if it is impossible already, to catch up. This is because world energy/resoures are far from sufficient for sustaining another infratrucure of scale of China since now on.
India vs.China? No contest! The game is over strategically, tactically and pratically, long before Morgan Stanley raised the topic.
Does China also has problems? Yes! A HUGE one. China may or may not need Western democracy per se in the foreseeable future. But one thing China must need, the sooner the better: Rule of LAW ! Chinese don’t need good emporer/s, but a truly independent juridical system. If CCP can deal with that correctly and in time, China will be the superpower, regardless current f..ked up environment and water issues. With rule of law, instead of rule of CCP, China can catch up and surpass US in both quantity and quality in a matter of several decades.