This BusinessWeek article claims that China and India are facing off to see who will become the next superpower.
The author claims that China won’t be the next new superpower because it has an authoritarian regime. India, despite its shoddy infrastructure, still hosts a chaotic democracy, so it should succeed. Here’s an excerpt:
Authoritarian regimes often yield impressive short-term economic results, as seen in Germany in the 1930s, the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Brazil in the 1960s, and China in the 1990s. Unencumbered by such things as property rights, legal recourse, and public debate, the
authoritarian regime can harness significant economic and political resources to create impressive industrial and economic feats.
Conversely, democratic regimes tend to be sloppy affairs with loud public discourse, a vocal press, stubborn land owners, and a myriad of civil liberties. Far from being able to harness economic resources, the government often must act more as a regulator. The result is that there are very few grandiose government-sponsored projects. Instead, there are countless private-sector initiatives driven by the invisible hand of the market. While the authoritarian regime is envied by some, the fact is that longer term, this type of socioeconomic model has typically led to economic and social distortions.
The author goes on to cite threats such as inflation, lack of property rights, and lack of rule of law as major stunting factors for China’s eventual dominance.
It’s true that India has an active democracy. It’s also notoriously corrupt. (”Rule of law” is an exaggeration in some places.) Half the population doesn’t have access to clean water. You can’t mobilize a sick, starving population without the infrastructure to give them their basic needs. You can, however, argue about their rights in a parliament without actually building them a well.
China, on the other hand, has infrastructure. It’s a communist-capitalist society, whatever that means. As far as I know, more than half its population has enough to eat. China has been showing a few signs of opening up to increased public discourse, at least internationally (Olympics, anyone?).
If China’s trend towards openness continues, it will win hands-down. Infrastructure is key to building a middle class, which is key to being a stable superpower. India needs to get its act together and figure out a way to get more than 50% of its population into livable conditions.
I think the only thing standing in China’s way at this point is itself. Inflation and a bad reputation are cheaper to fix than a major demographic problem. If innovation is an issue now, it shouldn’t be for long, with the millions of university graduates pouring out of Chinese tech institutes. A few tweaks to the economic model, and we’ll all be learning Mandarin in a few years.
Thoughts, anyone?
Who told you indians are sick and hungry? People don’t check data before writing.
Indresh, Thanks for commenting. In this case, I used data I had memorized from a previous project, but what really informed me was first-hand experience after several months in India earlier this year. Many Indians are doing very well. To say that everyone is would be a gross exaggeration.
Indresh: Perhaps a quick look at the latest UN human development indices may help, or a visit to India certainly will.
You obviously are reluctant to practice what you preach. Can’t identify problem, can’t solve it.
But that’s a problem with the small minority in India who are doing well, they would rather pose online and globally and get defensive at the slightest criticism than acknowledge what stares them in the face.
Blind pride may make you feel better personally but it will not solve any problems for the 70% of Indians who don’t have access to basic services and eke out a living on Rs 20 a day or $.50.
Good ideas are important to the long-term success of any nation. India is corrupt, but China has bad ideas: communism doesn’t work.
As such, in the long-run, India will prevail, but of course, if China has a revolution and embraces democracy and capitalism, all bets are off.
It doesn’t really matter anyway: as long as the United States allows immigration, she will always remain #1.
I thought that the BusinessWeek article was way off the mark. So much so that it becomes less a credible magazine to me after I read the article. I will probably take all information from BusinessWeek with a grain of salt in the future.
Listen to Amartya Sen: Freedom is more important than democracy. Neither China nor India are good at freedom, but India has a longer tradition of civil society. Can it overcome corruption faster than China can overcome fascism? There is no winner if both make progress, but there will be losers with failure to change.
I tend to think that China will go faster because wealth is happening more quickly AND communist ideology supports the rights of the individual. Indians, OTOH, are both poor and stunted by the legacy of colonialism, the license Raj, caste, and an all-too-flexible attitude towards corruption.
Oh — and India has a longer history of ill-fed underclasses…
If China doesn’t take care of their pollution people won’t even be able to live long enough to notice they are a power.
I am a Chinese and I don’t care whether China is a superpower or not, as long as it is strong enough to defend itself. If there is a superpower in the world and Indians want it so much, let India be it.
China is fast changing. For higher education, in 1990, China graduate 250,000 engineering and natural science students, in 2008, that number is 2,500,000. The western media still cites old data for their research, what a pity.
Anyway, I expect Chinese to make major and dominant contributions in global science and innovations starting from about 2020, for the wellfare of the whole mankind.
Wait and cheer for the future better world!
Funny. Do people really believe in these kind of predictions? While people may like or dislike articles of these kind, depending on the country they belong to or the country they want to associate themselves with. My interest is to see, if both become Superpowers, how do they co-exist as neighbours either peacefully or quarrelling.
Year 2010 belongs to UAE(Dubai & Abu Dhabi)
Hard to say.
The US and Britian hardly came to power status via modern democratic values. Neither adopted free market systems (do the current socialization of finacial risk via taxpayer bailout adhere to free market ideology?) or many of the other “values” 1st world cultural elitists deem neccesary for economic growth. Eventually it really comes down to providing basic needs to the majority of its citizens which will provide a foundation for growth.
Thats true. India can never be the superpower it wants to become. However, India can try to have good health care for all, vibrant business and a robust knowledge economy with some forerunner innovations and leadership in a few fields of science and technology minus the religious and caste high-sentiments. Thats all we should expect from India at this point. Perfect equality is NEVER possible or found in any country in the world. Poverty is found everywhere in the world, including America, where I live currently.
wake up every body
indian economy is making progress from about 8 to 9 years
and it is 2 early 2 comment that whether india is going to be the next super power or china or any other country.but let me tell u one thing people are talking about discrimantion on the basis of caste in india.discrimination,poverty and corruption is every where,in USA as black and white and in china as han or tibetan or chinese muslims.BUT some nation give an extra bit of effort in hideing corruption and voilation of human rights by their country(ESPECIALY CHINA and US-instead of being a democratic country)).and poverty is growing in
the world richest nation US.so as far as the next superpower is concerned india has the potential to become a superpower like china and the other fast growing economies has.and who is going to be the next superpower?
that time will tell.
bsr.
^^^^^
well said bro..
Japan.
India is the only country in the world histrory trying to make to the first world by being democratic while still being poor. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are using the same model: develope economy first, then the more democratic rights. Think about it.
India is also the only country in the world history trying to jump into the most advanced knowledge economy directly from agricultural economy by skipping entire manufactoring economy stage. This is to suggest that farmers can somehow become scientists overnight. Britain, USA, Japan, etc., and now China are also using the same model: every single one of them was (is, in China’s case) “world factory ” once upon a time.
And I don’t know what you guys are on by arguing that India even stand a chance in power game. The real question is how long will it be sobber enough to realize that it is a moving giant with feet made of clay.
of course China will win, China is already a superpower by many measures, but China does not want to dominate the world like the old Soviet or the current US. A peaceful superpower is great for the world. India can certainly be a superpower as well, but it seems india has a lot of baggage, being colonized in the past has damaged the national pride. Some people insist that the western model is the only model for human society to succeed, China has proven it wrong. BTW, Bubai might have some fancy buildings now, but it will not last, it is a mirage in the desert, that part of the world need to sort out a lot of issues before they can be on the road to world powers.
its foolish of those who think that there is a race to become super power and if so then every one of us has to wait for long.see this whole debate on that who will b the ultimate winner is out n out baseless.instead we should encourage these two fastest developing economies in their endevours n should mark it as a beginning of the rise of third world .No one in this century can b stated as super power.US attack on afganistan and iraq but osama still free and palling for another 9/11.i think this word superpower is now becoming void.india is developing it will become economic super power in next decade.this means more opportunities and same is the case with china the difference is going to experince this 1st.but if u wan’t to percieve it as a race then plzz remember that tortoise n rabbit race now india is that tortoise and china …. u understnd,by tortoise don’t i don’t mean to say that india is lazy but the fact is that we believe in strong foundations so that in future v can face most adverse conditions .
My two cents:
Goldman’s (?) Chindia concept is brainless. China and India are very differnt countries with very differnt cultures and traints of people. I met and worked with some mainland Chinese and Indians from India in my previous study. I visited both countries several times. Mainland Chinese in general are industrious, focused, practical and very intelligent. They talk the talk and most importantly, walk the walk. While Indians are generelly smart , but big-mouthed, with big ambition but few actions. Indians seem to me a bit chaotic compared to mainland Chinese’ confucius sheer discipline and order.
Democracy is definitely superior system in general than autocracy, IF, one surpasses a certain economic development tredshold. Unfortunately, I don’t see India’s democracy is a big plus in her current stage of economical development. Too too many iliterate ppl there with little improvement on basic education. So vote for what? Blinds vote for idiots?
By the same token, India’s “demographic dividend” (another main “advantage”" over China named by Deusche Bank, etc.) is another brainless concept! Since more than half of new-born and young people in the future WILL be starving, illiterate and/or semi-illiterate, what is this `dividend` for? For sharing the limited social benefits while contributing nothing ? It should be called a huge demographic BURDEN!
Without proper basic education system, India has chosen a Wrong developement path by skipping manufacturing industry to leap “forward” directly to Sevice and Knowledge-based industry. What do they think? Are the mass illiterates will suddenly become the beacon of wisdom base of future global economy?
Without proper infrastructures, India has left far behind China in THE persuit for manufacturing industry – the starting ladder. The later she realises it, the harder for her, if it is impossible already, to catch up. This is because world energy/resoures are far from sufficient for sustaining another infratrucure of scale of China since now on.
India vs.China? No contest! The game is over strategically, tactically and pratically, long before Morgan Stanley raised the topic.
Does China also has problems? Yes! A HUGE one. China may or may not need Western democracy per se in the foreseeable future. But one thing China must need, the sooner the better: Rule of LAW ! Chinese don’t need good emporer/s, but a truly independent juridical system. If CCP can deal with that correctly and in time, China will be the superpower, regardless current f..ked up environment and water issues. With rule of law, instead of rule of CCP, China can catch up and surpass US in both quantity and quality in a matter of several decades.
none will be superpower
Future world will b MULTIPOLAR WORLD
every countries will have streangth n weakness
The good point for both these nations is that they are HUGE, and growing fast (China even faster than India) while European nations and US, like fools waste money on ill ventures like “War on Terror”.
Advantages of India are:
India is more open to the world than China. Indians generally (who are English educated), speak good English. In China, less percentage of the population speaks English. Its difficult to change the “English-speaking” trend on Earth, but it would be interesting to see a generation learning Mandarin
.
2. There is a bigger youth population (than China), who have a voice in a democracy. Though the democracy of India my be shoddy, once these youths are stirred there would, without doubt be faster growth in all fields. Like I said, the Indians are generally slack (I am an Indian mysef
)
Advantages of China are:
1. They are a bigger economy, that is growing at a faster rate than India. China has also been less affected (than India) in the time following the “Global Economic Meltdown”.
2. China has a more massive and technologically stronger army than India. I am not saying they would go to war, but a Superpower by all means NEEDS to have the strongest military. China on this line is not only technologically ahead India, but also by manpower.
The only disadvantage to China is if the Communist party remains rigid and people demand rights to vote and express themselves. But I am quiet sure this won’t affect them, because it will be a gradual change the Communist party will also accept. Mainly because once you are rich, you understand socialist policies are less necessary.
Thanks to the 1 child policy of the 70s, 80s and early 90s, China will turn grey before it escapes poverty. It’s advantage will start dissipating away beginning in 2015. India, a democracy, will have a smooth transition.
I do not understand something?
When does the western media wants to grow out of false prejudice and pride.
china and india are two ancient cultures where people have definitely more wisdonm amd potential of work than Europe or West so called America.
America is just country with no civilization or any culture of its own.Some people leaves the Europe, find a new place and kill its inhabitants brutally and name that place as America. Anyone can do it. Go loot some starnge land, convert its already rich resources in to good infrastrcture at the expense of black labour so called slavory.
Look at the countries like India which were vandalised by invaders and look the progress India has made. Who the hell say half Indians does not have drinkking water?.
This is pure peice of West ignorance, mere chimerical ideas to keep west on top.
Do you think America is true democracy. Absolute no. Its mere capitalism to cntrlo the assets created on others land.
We alresdy know what kind of mind set Americans have for imigrants and people of color? they will do everything Indian and chinese and still discriminate them at their will.
America runs on Imigrants. Where do they come from?
India and china etc.
Come on grow up westren media but I donot mind if certain poeple wants to be happy in ignorance.
Pardon my poor English. Indian is willing to die to be call a Superpower chinese grammar say it like this. Die die want to besuperpower . India is a Superpower. India is a Superpower. India is a Superpower.
Happy.
I am Chinese and an under-deserved Anglophile as
well. To us Chinese, India is already the world’s
No.1 Superpower. No dispute here, and much admired.
In PPP terms, India is already the world’s No.1
economy, not even the US comes close. India has a
super high-tech economy with InfoSys, Wipro, Nano,
and much more that the average Chinese never even
heard about. Not to mention Gandhi, Nehru, and Singh
super human politicians. India has a huge population
dividend, and as time grows the advantage will
become much more pronounced. In the next 100 years,
India with her super effective democracy will
prevail; as we just pray that India will be also
kind enough to leave a bit of room for us Chinese to
earn a modest living on our planet. India just needs
to sleep walk through the next 30 years, whereas us
Chinese will have to continue to slave under the
Sun, rain, and snow just to keep us fed and our kids
in school. With the current economic crisis, my
salary here in Beijing is shrinking by 8% each year,
together with the overall economy. In 30 years, I
suspect it would be zero, but then I would also be
dead and need not to care. Whatever you hear from
our government and the foreign press, if it is good
news, just ignore it, it is not quite right, shall
we just say. Cheers to India.
You say as quote : It’s true that India has an active democracy. It’s also notoriously corrupt. : which means that it is a capitalist nation
and then you also say that China is a communist-capitalist nation. What makes you think China is not as corrupt if not further. One of the main chinese principles is to earn money and they will do that in anyway. Having lived myself in China, Singapore and Hong Kong I can say that for a fact. Besides more than three quarters of china’s population are uneducated and are living in poverty and starving. Don;t mistake that for india. Sure there is poverty prevalent in both countries but more so in China. Also Indians do have an averge higher number if educated people, whereas in China due to excessive overpopulation not so much. This is not their fault and i’m sure with more foreign investments in their country they will catch up in no time.
Also China thrives on others investing in their country. If investers pulled out many people would not be able to feed themselves, e.g olympics provided money for every lay person who can perform good gymnastics.
In addition, India is a country rich in natural resources with moderate climate conditions allowing enough food growth to support its population. Whereas the a lot of China is taken up by that massive Gobi Dessert, allowing impossible living conditions.
Most importantly, India is a more self-sufficient country then China. Being left to itself India has risen drmamtically With the economy soaring at 8 percent a year and this is all due to India itself, no one else. But as I have mentioned before CHina gets a lot of its boost from foreign investment. However they are not to be underestimated.
It can be fairly concluded that both India AND CHina will emerge as superpowers…however which one emerges first I believe is India hands down…But everyone is entitled to their own opinion and we should just let time take its course to show the actual result.
One thing I don’t get.
The last superpower who lost its superpower status was UK, and the transition happened in the 1920s, 1920s folks, was long time ago, by then 80% of the human world was undeveloped, Germany merely made it to a country 20 yrs ago, what makes you think the United States, current world superpower would let this even happen again?!
China, is a cheap labor based export-oriented economy, if vast majority of its people get rich, the economy dies. You can’t become richer than your boss right? simple as that, the Chinese live on selling goods to the americans, if the sellers in total are richer than the buyers, don’t you think demand of chinese goods would collapse as the price will be unbelievably high? economics 101 says china, if maintain its current growth pattern, cannot be richer than united states, not to mention to replace it as the next super power.
I don’t know much about India, aside from the fact that it was a british colony, and once break free, try to leapfrog from an extremely poor 3rd world country to the first class passenger of the earth without solid industry growth, let me tell you about the essential reality of business, if you sell psuedo goods such as service, it won’t last long, eventually the bubble caught you, because you are not producing anything, look at the internet bubble in the early 2000s, and that the housing bubble which cost the notorious global recession.
United States, in another hand, has been maintaining its super power status for almost a century now, there’s a reason for that, United States changes thru time, it had become the world factary in the 1920s thru 1950s, when industry is the best catalyst for domestic economy, then in the 1970s it successfully tranformed its economy to service-oriented, and moved all its pollution industry to the 3rd world, and take benefit from cheap labors from all over the 3rd world. China ofcoz is no exception, cheap slave workers of china have a boss, and that my friend is corporate america. I’m just saying, the United States made the most right bets for the past 90 yrs, and there’s no sign of its losing this brilliance.
It takes the rich to make huge mistakes to become poor, but huge luck even a miracle for the extremely poor to become rich, think about that, we as avg. daily working people, want someday to slave our boss, how big of a chance do we stand?
I do not know India will be next superpower, but I am pretty sure China is not. China GDP/per capita is only 4% of USA. If you can read Chinese, then you possibly know that current National Goal of China: “To be a middle-level developed Country by 2050″ (i.e some country as current Argentina). That is the development Goal of Chinese goverment and circulated in Chinese media very often. Every 5-year on CCP convention, CCP will address how far away still and what should we do in order to realize the goal.
Let’s just cheer India to be the superpower from today. Better yet, as there can be only one super power in this world, let’s just hope India will also take the responsibility being one. For the rest of us in China, cheers to a better life.
I think India and china would be two superpower nations. But China is most developed now than India to become a superpower nation.
Anybody for chappati and dhal? The cuisine of the superpower. India is already a superpower. Just close your eyes and walk around the rev Ganesh shrine 108 times , chanting ‘ india is a superpower ‘ and you can be sure India will be a superpower. Only don’t tell the Chinese.
Oh, be quiet Huyu. Your mockery for India through your little satire is much un-called for.
Let me digress; I must agree with kkkk and Tao- China itself doesn’t even have the desire to be a superpower. Such endeavour would almost be impossible as the world is already on a fixed scale slanted towards the benefit of America. But I hope that I only think so for a lack of perspective or that I’m looking at this from too narrow a spectrum.
However, I must add that, despite hoping that China and India could actually take over as superpowers, I believe the western media had been using the “China becoming the super power” slogan as a scare tactic braodcasted to steepen their contempt for China- much like the “Red Terror” campaign in the fifties to ingrain fear in the minds of some submissive Americans enslaved by the television.
Thanks to Michael Moore, and many other independent thinkers, I truly hope that maybe one day America would loosen and break free from the grip of its corporate sponsors and truly rise as a nation of democracy.
hello, my friends
most of the chineses are biddist and their god budha was born in india. if you look at the ancient history, most of the gods were born in india. india is holy land. it is a land of god. there is no doute that india is going to be next superpower. god wants to be india next super power than nobody can do anything. it is all about god, my friens………..keep in your mind. just watch the game of the god………….there is no comment and arguement about this topic.
3 elements of a superpower
—ablity to attack others at anytime
—repay debts wit more debts
—hv media made up of bullshit like CNN
India and China? not in 100 years they wont
To become a super power you have to have defined borders. Few years from now India will evolute to become india1, india2, india3 etc with so many suppressed separatist movements.
China stays one nation and is moving in one direction unlike Indians who are running like headless chickens everywhere with no clear destination (practically)
Time be the judge